What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 82¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.63.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 83% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 82%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Lake Mead water levels on Kalshi

If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1040 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Market says (typical open contract)

82%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

36% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
82¢ (now)	1.0¢	$0.63	83.0%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1039 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1039 Ft	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	11,822	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1040 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1040 Ft	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	6,767	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1036 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1036 Ft	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	2,784	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1037 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1037 Ft	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	36%	2,783	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1038 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1038 Ft	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	91%	2,577	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1035 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1035 Ft	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	1,798	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1033 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1033 Ft	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,531	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1034 feet in Dec 2026? · Above 1034 Ft	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	821	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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