Markets › Kalshi › Elections
LA on Kalshi
If Traci Park wins the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: relevant county clerk or board of elections, Attorney General of the United States, relevant city/municipal clerk, the Federal Election Commission, state board of elections or canvassing board.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Traci Park | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Spencer Pratt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Rick Caruso | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Nithya Raman | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Kenneth Mejia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Karen Bass | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Adam Miller | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? · Austin Beutner | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 04, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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