Markets › Kalshi › Sports
March Madness 1 Seeds on Kalshi
If Xavier is selected as a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 71 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Florida be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Florida | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3,262 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Duke | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 2,766 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzaga be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Gonzaga | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 647 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · UConn | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 473 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Arizona | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 274 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Illinois | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 186 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Michigan St. | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 75 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Arkansas | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 73 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Texas | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 73 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Texas Tech | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 58 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Michigan | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 50 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Kansas | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 45 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Virginia | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 39 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · North Carolina | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 31 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Wisconsin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 30 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Alabama | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 29 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will BYU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · BYU | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Louisville | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 20 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Texas A&M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 20 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Houston | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 12 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Tennessee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 7 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Kentucky | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Ohio St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Miami (FL) | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Iowa St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · UCLA | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 4 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USC be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · USC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Purdue | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Florida St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Seton Hall be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Seton Hall | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Xavier | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wake Forest be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Wake Forest | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Virginia Tech | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Villanova be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Villanova | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will VCU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · VCU | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Vanderbilt | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Syracuse be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Syracuse | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stanford be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Stanford | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SMU be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · SMU | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Mary's be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament? · Saint Mary's | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 71 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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