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Who will visit Mar-a-Lago this year? on Kalshi
If Xi Jinping is reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 to have visited Mar-a-Lago, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
19% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Fishback be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · James Fishback | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 25,562 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Xi Jinping | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13,031 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 10,834 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ron DeSantis be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Ron DeSantis | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 7,787 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Putin be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Vladimir Putin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5,251 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Giorgia Meloni be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Giorgia Meloni | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,182 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Zuckerberg be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Mark Zuckerberg | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,543 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 2,175 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeff Bezos be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Jeff Bezos | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,781 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jensen Huang be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Jensen Huang | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 913 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 806 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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