Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Mansfield mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Steve Garner wins the 2027 Mansfield mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Mansfield District Council.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Garner win the 2027 Mansfield mayoral election? · Steve Garner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Reform UK win the 2027 Mansfield mayoral election? · Reform UK | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Labour Party win the 2027 Mansfield mayoral election? · Labour | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Conservative Party win the 2027 Mansfield mayoral election? · Conservative | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | May 06, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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