What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Mammoth Main Lodge seasonal snowfall on Kalshi

If the total snowfall recorded at Mammoth Mountain October 1, 2026 through December 24, 2026 (value recorded at 4:00 PM ET on December 24) is above 215 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: OnTheSnow, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Alterra Mountain Company, Reuters, Associated Press.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Above 165 inches · Above 165 inches	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	4,024	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 50 inches · Above 50 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,749	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 140 inches · Above 140 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	3,315	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 95 inches · Above 95 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	1,222	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 125 inches · Above 125 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	276	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 35 inches · Above 35 inches	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	210	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 80 inches · Above 80 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	208	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 110 inches · Above 110 inches	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	143	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 65 inches · Above 65 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	4	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 215 inches · Above 215 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 190 inches · Above 190 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.