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Venezuelan Winter League (LVBP) on Kalshi
If Aguilas del Zulia wins the Aguilas del Zulia vs Bravos de Margarita Venezuelan Winter League (LVBP) game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Venezuelan Winter League (LVBP).
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aguilas del Zulia wins · Aguilas del Zulia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Bravos de Margarita wins · Bravos de Margarita | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Cardenales de Lara wins · Cardenales de Lara | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Leones de Caracas wins · Leones de Caracas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Tigres de Aragua wins · Tigres de Aragua | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Caribes de Anzoategui wins · Caribes de Anzoategui | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Aguilas del Zulia wins · Aguilas del Zulia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Bravos de Margarita wins · Bravos de Margarita | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Navegantes de Magallanes wins · Navegantes de Magallanes | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Tiburones De La Guaira wins · Tiburones De La Guaira | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Cardenales de Lara wins · Cardenales de Lara | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Leones de Caracas wins · Leones de Caracas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Tigres de Aragua wins · Tigres de Aragua | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Caribes de Anzoategui wins · Caribes de Anzoategui | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Bravos de Margarita wins · Bravos de Margarita | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Navegantes de Magallanes wins · Navegantes de Magallanes | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Cardenales de Lara wins · Cardenales de Lara | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Tiburones De La Guaira wins · Tiburones De La Guaira | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Aguilas del Zulia wins · Aguilas del Zulia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Tigres de Aragua wins · Tigres de Aragua | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Bravos de Margarita wins · Bravos de Margarita | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Navegantes de Magallanes wins · Navegantes de Magallanes | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Tiburones De La Guaira wins · Tiburones De La Guaira | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Tigres de Aragua wins · Tigres de Aragua | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.