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Southwest KPI on Kalshi
If Southwest Airlines Company reports Above 235 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 94¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $0.21 | 94.4% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $220 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $220 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 14,912 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $225 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $225 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 12,128 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 229 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 229 million | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 8,927 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $235 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $235 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 7,297 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $230 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $230 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 6,424 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 227 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 227 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,655 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 235 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 235 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,045 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 225 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 225 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,666 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 233 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 233 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,586 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 231 million seats flown in 2026? · Above 231 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,488 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $215 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $215 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 589 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $210 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $210 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 309 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $205 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026? · Above $205 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 224 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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