Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Lowest temperature over a period on Kalshi
If the minimum temperature recorded at Newark (KEWR) for Nov 12 to 15, 2026 (inclusive, America/New_York local calendar dates), is less than 40° Fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company, National Weather Service.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New York City fall below 40°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 40°F | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark fall below 40°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 40°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark fall below 38°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 38°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark fall below 36°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 36°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark fall below 34°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 34°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark fall below 32°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 32°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Providence fall below 38°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 38°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Providence fall below 36°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 36°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Providence fall below 34°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 34°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Providence fall below 32°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 32°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Providence fall below 30°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 30°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia fall below 40°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 40°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia fall below 38°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 38°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia fall below 36°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 36°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia fall below 34°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 34°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia fall below 32°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 32°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston fall below 36°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 36°F | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston fall below 34°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 34°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston fall below 32°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 32°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston fall below 30°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 30°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston fall below 28°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 28°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York City fall below 44°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 44°F | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York City fall below 42°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 42°F | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York City fall below 38°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 38°F | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York City fall below 36°F from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Below 36°F | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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