What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 41% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which of these state or local laws will pass? on Kalshi

If legislation granting a Wyoming state entity (whether newly created or the Wyoming stable token commission with expanded powers) statutory authority to administer government-issued digital assets beyond the Wyoming stable token is enacted in Wyoming before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: geography’s official government websites, major newspapers in geography.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

79% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
40¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.10	41.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority? · Yes	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	35,790	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027? · Yes	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	24,465	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again? · Yes	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	21,122	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax? · Yes	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	6,853	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers? · Yes	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	6,079	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Illinois regulate data center energy and water use? · Yes	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	5,659	May 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Tennessee regulate data center water use? · Yes	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	5,630	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
Will North Dakota ban cloud seeding? · Yes	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	5,273	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Virginia require data centers to use clean energy? · Yes	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	4,388	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Nashville commercial property tax relief become law? · Yes	62¢	62%	1.7¢	—	77%	786	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan? · Yes	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	54	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Nebraska cut property taxes by $250 million? · Yes	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	0	Oct 01, 00:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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