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Lockheed Martin Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Lockheed Martin Corporation reports Above 126000 headcount in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 124 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 124 thousand | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 5,338 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 130 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 130 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 3,078 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 123 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 123 thousand | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 2,100 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 170 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 170 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,181 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 125 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 125 thousand | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 1,072 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 150 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 150 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 742 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 140 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 140 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 693 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 110 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 110 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 322 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 120 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 120 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 160 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 100 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 100 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 44 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 126 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 126 thousand | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 34 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 119 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 119 thousand | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 160 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 160 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 15 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 190 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 190 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 12 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 180 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026? · Above 180 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10 | Apr 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 120 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 120 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 122 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 122 thousand | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 121 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 121 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Apr 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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