What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Lima mayoral election on Kalshi

If Rafael López Aliaga wins the 2026 Lima mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Rafael López Aliaga	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	31,410	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Francis Allison win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Francis Allison	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	12,432	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Carlos Bruce	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	8,757	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Oswaldo Vargas win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Oswaldo Vargas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,980	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Daniel Urresti win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Daniel Urresti	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,801	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Luis Rubio win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Luis Rubio	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,747	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Samuel Daza win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Samuel Daza	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,345	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Yehude Simon win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Yehude Simon	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,982	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Susel Paredes win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Susel Paredes	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,242	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Alberto Tejada win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Alberto Tejada	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,125	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Lima mayoral election? · Ricardo Belmont	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	787	Oct 04, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.