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Ligue 1 Top Finishers on Kalshi
If Toulouse is a top 4 finisher in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Monaco | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 217 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Stade Rennes | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 104 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lille finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Lille | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 63 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Lens | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 30 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Marseille | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 17 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Lyon | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 12 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · PSG | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Strasbourg Alsace | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris FC finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Paris FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 6 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Angers finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Angers | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Le Havre | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nice finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Nice | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Toulouse | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Stade Brest 29 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Le Mans finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Le Mans | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lorient finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Lorient | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Troyes finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Troyes | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Auxerre finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season? · Auxerre | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 13, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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