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Liga MX Winner on Kalshi
If Toluca is the 2026-27 Liga MX Clausura champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 36 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura? · Cruz Azul | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 172,636 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Apertura? · Cruz Azul | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 150,073 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will America win the Liga MX Apertura? · America | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 148,888 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Guadalajara win the Liga MX Apertura? · Guadalajara | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 146,524 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Toluca win the Liga MX Clausura? · Toluca | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 100,939 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toluca win the Liga MX Apertura? · Toluca | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 83,534 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will America win the Liga MX Clausura? · America | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 72,349 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Guadalajara win the Liga MX Clausura? · Guadalajara | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 56,982 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monterrey win the Liga MX Apertura? · Monterrey | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 49,521 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Tijuana de Caliente win the Liga MX Apertura? · Tijuana de Caliente | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 48,463 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Apertura? · Pumas UNAM | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 41,560 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Santos Laguna win the Liga MX Apertura? · Santos Laguna | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 39,889 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Atlas win the Liga MX Apertura? · Atlas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 39,723 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Leon win the Liga MX Apertura? · Leon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 37,509 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Tigres win the Liga MX Apertura? · Tigres | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 31,956 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Pachuca win the Liga MX Apertura? · Pachuca | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 29,297 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Queretaro win the Liga MX Apertura? · Queretaro | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 29,061 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Atlante win the Liga MX Apertura? · Atlante | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,275 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Clausura? · Pumas UNAM | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 27,969 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Puebla win the Liga MX Apertura? · Puebla | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,736 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Monterrey win the Liga MX Clausura? · Monterrey | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 19,110 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tijuana de Caliente win the Liga MX Clausura? · Tijuana de Caliente | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 18,067 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Necaxa win the Liga MX Apertura? · Necaxa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,601 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will San Luis win the Liga MX Apertura? · San Luis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,403 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Tigres win the Liga MX Clausura? · Tigres | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,678 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Pachuca win the Liga MX Clausura? · Pachuca | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,554 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Atlas win the Liga MX Clausura? · Atlas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,972 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Queretaro win the Liga MX Clausura? · Queretaro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,308 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Santos Laguna win the Liga MX Clausura? · Santos Laguna | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,988 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Atlante win the Liga MX Clausura? · Atlante | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,957 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leon win the Liga MX Clausura? · Leon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,724 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will San Luis win the Liga MX Clausura? · San Luis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,363 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Puebla win the Liga MX Clausura? · Puebla | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,908 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Juarez win the Liga MX Apertura? · Juarez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,527 | Jan 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Necaxa win the Liga MX Clausura? · Necaxa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,240 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Juarez win the Liga MX Clausura? · Juarez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,409 | Jun 16, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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