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Liga Expansion Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Piratas Veracruz vs Club Atletico La Paz professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Piratas Veracruz wins · Piratas Veracruz | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Club Atletico La Paz wins · Club Atletico La Paz | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Leones Negros wins · Leones Negros | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Atletico Morelia wins · Atletico Morelia | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Piratas Veracruz wins · Piratas Veracruz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Club Atletico La Paz wins · Club Atletico La Paz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Leones Negros wins · Leones Negros | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Atletico Morelia wins · Atletico Morelia | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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