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1st Half Total on Kalshi

If the total goals scored by Piratas Veracruz and Club Atletico La Paz is more than 2.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Piratas Veracruz vs Club Atletico La Paz professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)
39%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
39¢ (now)1.7¢$2.1440.7%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored15¢15%0.9¢—30%0Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored39¢39%1.7¢—78%0Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored74¢74%1.3¢—51%0Nov 14, 02:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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