What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 24¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.68.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 25% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 24%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France? on Kalshi

If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, Gouvernement de la République française, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, the Journal officiel de la République française, Présidence de la République, The Washington Post, CNN, Politico, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

24%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

47% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.66	25.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their departure as Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	1	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their departure as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	0	May 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their departure as Prime Minister of France before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	0	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their departure as Prime Minister of France before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their departure as Prime Minister of France before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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