What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? on Kalshi

If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: person, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027? · Before 2027	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,325,058	Jan 02, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.