Markets › Kalshi › Elections
World leaders out this year? on Kalshi
If Pedro Alliana has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Paraguay or has actually left President of Paraguay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Washington Post, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, ABC, the Associated Press, NBC, Axios, The New York Times, official government websites relevant to <office>, Politico, office or organization where <person> holds <office>, CNN, Reuters, CBS, Bloomberg News.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 36 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027? · Vladimir Putin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 824,656 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027? · Miguel Díaz-Canel | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 762,469 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027? · Xi Jinping | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 719,196 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 674,934 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027? · Mohammed bin Salman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 168,783 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027? · Claudia Sheinbaum | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 154,265 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 145,776 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027? · Emmanuel Macron | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 103,047 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027? · Friedrich Merz | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 97,865 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027? · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 70,669 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027? · Pedro Sánchez | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 68,514 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027? · Kim Jong Un | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 65,139 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027? · Sanae Takaichi | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 53,389 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027? · Ahmad al-Sharaa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 28,734 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027? · Delcy Rodriguez | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 25,442 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027? · Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 21,110 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027? · Christopher Luxon | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 18,608 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027? · Mark Carney | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 16,077 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027? · Mette Frederiksen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 14,384 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027? · Lee Jae Myung | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10,107 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027? · Jens-Frederik Nielsen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9,552 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027? · Giorgia Meloni | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 8,949 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027? · Cyril Ramaphosa | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,717 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027? · Ramzan Kadyrov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,664 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027? · Narendra Modi | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8,420 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027? · Nayib Bukele | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,769 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027? · Javier Milei | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,528 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027? · Sébastien Lecornu | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 5,544 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027? · Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5,278 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027? · Frederik X | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,977 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027? · Daniel Noboa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,842 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027? · Denis Sassou Nguesso | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,482 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027? · Félix Tshisekedi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,420 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Edi Rama leave Prime Minister of Albania before Jan 1, 2027? · Edi Rama | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 916 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027? · Irfaan Ali | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 611 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
| Will Pedro Alliana leave President of Paraguay before Jan 1, 2027? · Pedro Alliana | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 02, 03:17 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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