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NFL leader receiving TDs on Kalshi
If Trey McBride leads Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A.J. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · A.J. Brown | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 14,265 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Davante Adams lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Davante Adams | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,991 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Mike Evans | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 9,920 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ja'Marr Chase lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Ja'Marr Chase | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 8,313 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amon-Ra St. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,047 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jaylen Waddle | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,846 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,663 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Puka Nacua lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Puka Nacua | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,185 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Brock Bowers | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,111 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 5,477 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Ladd McConkey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,016 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Pickens lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · George Pickens | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,781 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malik Nabers lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Malik Nabers | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,780 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zay Flowers lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Zay Flowers | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,559 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CeeDee Lamb lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · CeeDee Lamb | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,392 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tee Higgins lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Tee Higgins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,901 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Collins lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Nico Collins | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,751 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DK Metcalf lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · DK Metcalf | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,327 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emeka Egbuka lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Emeka Egbuka | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,208 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tetairoa McMillan lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Tetairoa McMillan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,135 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marvin Harrison Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,026 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake London lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Drake London | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,666 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rome Odunze lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Rome Odunze | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,020 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Garrett Wilson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Garrett Wilson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,312 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Courtland Sutton lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Courtland Sutton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 988 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Thomas Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Brian Thomas Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 106 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stefon Diggs lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Stefon Diggs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 27 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jameson Williams lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jameson Williams | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isaiah Likely lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Isaiah Likely | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Gesicki lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Mike Gesicki | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 16 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trey McBride lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Trey McBride | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Kittle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · George Kittle | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian Watson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Christian Watson | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 2 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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