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Nominees confirmed in the lame-duck session on Kalshi
If the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate is at least 200 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Senate, Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 10 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 10 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10,401 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 50 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 50 | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 9,447 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 125 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 125 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 8,775 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 75 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 75 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 7,117 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 100 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 100 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5,028 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 25 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 25 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,437 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 175 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 175 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 229 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 150 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 150 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 210 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate be at least 200 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027? · At least 200 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 5 | Jan 04, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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