Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory on Kalshi
If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 8% to 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%? · Nithya Raman, 8-10% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 23,199 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 6% and 8%? · Nithya Raman, 6-8% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,594 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 2%? · Nithya Raman, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,143 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 2% and 4%? · Nithya Raman, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,488 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 6%? · Nithya Raman, 4-6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,040 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%? · Nithya Raman, 10-12% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5,507 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 18%? · Nithya Raman, 16-18% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,739 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be at least 18%? · Nithya Raman, ≥18% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,297 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 14% and 16%? · Nithya Raman, 14-16% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,039 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 14%? · Nithya Raman, 12-14% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,615 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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