What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 33¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.35.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 35% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 33%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Kentucky Governor 2027: who will run? on Kalshi

If Thomas Massie has announced that they will run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027 after Issuance and before Jan 9, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

33%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

66% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
33¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.34	34.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Scott Jennings announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · Scott Jennings	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,761	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC
Will James Comer announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · James Comer	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	826	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · Thomas Massie	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	629	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC
Will Daniel Cameron announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · Daniel Cameron	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	480	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC
Will Nate Morris announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · Nate Morris	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	251	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC
Will Damon Thayer announce a run for Governor of Kentucky in 2027? · Damon Thayer	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	102	Jan 09, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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