What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027? on Kalshi

If Jacob Frey officially holds the position of United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Federal Register, official organizational website where role is housed, or company responsible for role, The Wall Street Journal, USAJobs.gov, ABC, person, NBC, The Washington Post, agency, Axios, The New York Times, CNN, official government website, Fox News, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, CBS, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Angie Craig	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	5,047	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Kelly Morrison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Kelly Morrison	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	4,692	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Steve Simon be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Steve Simon	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	2,396	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will No one be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · No one	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	662	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Keith Ellison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Keith Ellison	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	614	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Peggy Flanagan be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Peggy Flanagan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	439	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Tim Walz be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Tim Walz	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	416	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Amy Klobuchar be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Amy Klobuchar	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	415	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Erin Murphy be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Erin Murphy	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	346	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Melisa López Franzen be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Melisa López Franzen	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	171	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Tina Smith be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Tina Smith	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	93	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Jacob Frey be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Jacob Frey	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	14	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Ben Schierer be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Ben Schierer	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	14	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Jesse Ventura be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Jesse Ventura	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Ilhan Omar be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Ilhan Omar	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Betty McCollum be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Betty McCollum	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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