Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Weekly initial jobless claims on Kalshi
If there are at least 215000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Department of Labor.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 190,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,206 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 175,000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 854 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 200,000 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 642 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 205,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 633 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 195,000 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 544 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 185,000 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 385 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 210,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 53 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 180,000 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 215,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 170,000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
| How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Nov 7, 2026? · At least 165,000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 12, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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