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Jeffries first-ballot votes for Speaker on Kalshi
If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 261 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jeffries get at least 249 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 249 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 2,058 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 255 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 255 | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,253 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 252 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 252 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 260 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 261 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 261 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 258 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 258 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 246 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 246 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeffries get at least 243 votes on the first Speaker ballot? · At least 243 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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