Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Japan House of Representatives on Kalshi
If Team Mirai wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan Innovation Party win the next Japanese general election? · Japan Innovation Party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,010 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic Party for the People win the next Japanese general election? · Democratic Party for the People | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,994 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic Reform Party win the next Japanese general election? · Democratic Reform Party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,499 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sanseitō win the next Japanese general election? · Sanseitō | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,002 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Team Mirai win the next Japanese general election? · Team Mirai | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,000 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Constitutional Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election? · Constitutional Democratic Party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,000 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election? · Liberal Democratic Party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 1,000 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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