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Who will be Israeli justice minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Yariv Levin formally takes office as Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofir Katz be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ofir Katz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,695 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Chili Tropper | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 6,150 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Karine Elharrar be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Karine Elharrar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,417 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oded Forer be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Oded Forer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,667 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Bezalel Smotrich | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,501 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ayelet Shaked be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ayelet Shaked | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,916 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Moshe Saada be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Moshe Saada | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,901 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yariv Levin be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yariv Levin | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,860 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tally Gotliv be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Tally Gotliv | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,402 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,282 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Simcha Rothman be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Simcha Rothman | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,116 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Efrat Rayten be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Efrat Rayten | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,044 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gilad Kariv be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gilad Kariv | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 961 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gideon Sa'ar | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 901 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amir Ohana | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 901 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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