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Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election? on Kalshi
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Times of Israel.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Israel Katz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4,039 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Naftali Bennett | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,082 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Ofer Winter is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Ofer Winter | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,225 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Avigdor Lieberman | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,094 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Itamar Ben-Gvir | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,080 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Gadi Eisenkot is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Gadi Eisenkot | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 406 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 318 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Yair Golan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 48 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Yoav Gallant | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benny Gantz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? · Benny Gantz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Oct 28, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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