What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after their election? on Kalshi

If Daniel Hagari becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: parliament or legislature of <country>, official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country>, office of the head of state of <country>, major national news outlets of <country>, Financial Times, the Associated Press, official government websites of <country>, Reuters, The Guardian, BBC, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Benjamin Netanyahu	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	6,821,959	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gadi Eizenkot	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	1,908,881	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No one	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	933,571	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Avigdor Lieberman become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Avigdor Lieberman	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	613,997	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Naftali Bennett	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	446,233	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Itamar Ben Gvir become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Itamar Ben Gvir	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	20,494	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Amir Ohana become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amir Ohana	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,986	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yair Lapid become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Lapid	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,283	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Israel Katz become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Israel Katz	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,593	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Benny Gantz become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Benny Gantz	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,243	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yair Golan become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Golan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,091	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Daniel Hagari become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Daniel Hagari	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,963	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Ayelet Shaked become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ayelet Shaked	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,635	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yoaz Hendel become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoaz Hendel	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,001	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Moshe Feiglin become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Moshe Feiglin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	434	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yossi Cohen become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yossi Cohen	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	342	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yuli Edelstein become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yuli Edelstein	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	215	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Aviv Kohavi become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Aviv Kohavi	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	203	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Gideon Sa'ar become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gideon Sa'ar	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	78	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Yariv Levin become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yariv Levin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC
Will Nir Barkat become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Nir Barkat	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Oct 27, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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