Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Israeli government formation confidence vote on Kalshi
If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Knesset.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027? · Before Feb 3, 2027 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,461 | Feb 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Dec 23, 2026? · Before Dec 23, 2026 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 383 | Dec 23, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 20, 2027? · Before Jan 20, 2027 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 311 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 302 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Mar 15, 2027? · Before Mar 15, 2027 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 200 | Mar 15, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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