What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.85.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 20% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Canva IPO on Kalshi

If Canva confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, Reuters, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

37% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Mar 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	2,128	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2027	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,948	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2027	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	1,892	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2028	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	1,674	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Feb 1, 2027	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,262	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Nov 1, 2027	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	1,180	Nov 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before May 1, 2027	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	1,157	May 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Jul 1, 2027	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	1,034	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Apr 1, 2027	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	905	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Jun 1, 2027	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	761	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Oct 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	450	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Aug 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	311	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Sep 1, 2027	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	236	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Canva officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2026	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	212	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.