What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 97¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.11.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 97% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 97%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Will the S&P 500 outperform gold this year? on Kalshi

If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above BTC for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: For example, Google Finance.

Market says (typical open contract)

97%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
97¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.11	97.2%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC? · S&P 500 Total Return Index	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	16,220	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index? · BTC	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	13,831	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.