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International Friendly Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Argentina vs Costa Rica professional Intl Friendlies soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 96 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia wins · Australia | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 5,889 | Nov 15, 14:45 UTC |
| Paraguay wins · Paraguay | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,417 | Nov 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Colombia wins · Colombia | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,560 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Uruguay wins · Uruguay | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,247 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| New Zealand wins · New Zealand | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,626 | Nov 14, 06:00 UTC |
| Brazil wins · Brazil | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,576 | Nov 16, 10:15 UTC |
| India wins · India | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,519 | Nov 14, 06:00 UTC |
| Ecuador wins · Ecuador | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,334 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Argentina wins · Argentina | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,304 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Qatar wins · Qatar | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 932 | Nov 15, 14:45 UTC |
| Russia wins · Russia | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 852 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Singapore wins · Singapore | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 655 | Nov 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Brazil wins · Brazil | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 242 | Nov 19, 10:00 UTC |
| Iran wins · Iran | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 225 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Singapore wins · Singapore | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 170 | Nov 19, 10:00 UTC |
| Japan wins · Japan | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 156 | Nov 16, 10:15 UTC |
| Honduras wins · Honduras | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 153 | Nov 15, 14:10 UTC |
| Malta wins · Malta | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 133 | Nov 14, 17:30 UTC |
| Republic of Korea wins · Republic of Korea | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 120 | Nov 15, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 120 | Nov 15, 23:00 UTC |
| Malaysia wins · Malaysia | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 107 | Nov 16, 12:00 UTC |
| Uzbekistan wins · Uzbekistan | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 79 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Ecuador wins · Ecuador | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 61 | Nov 19, 23:30 UTC |
| Uruguay wins · Uruguay | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 50 | Nov 19, 23:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 49 | Nov 19, 10:00 UTC |
| Eswatini wins · Eswatini | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 49 | Nov 14, 17:30 UTC |
| China wins · China | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 28 | Nov 16, 12:00 UTC |
| Saudi Arabia wins · Saudi Arabia | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 23 | Nov 15, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 22 | Nov 16, 10:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 19 | Nov 14, 17:30 UTC |
| UAE wins · UAE | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 13 | Nov 15, 14:10 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 13 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 10 | Nov 15, 14:10 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 10 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Suriname wins · Suriname | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 7 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Peru wins · Peru | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 7 | Nov 16, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 6 | Nov 14, 06:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5 | Nov 15, 14:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 4 | Nov 15, 14:30 UTC |
| Iraq wins · Iraq | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 96 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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