What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 17¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 18% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 17%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Insurrection on Kalshi

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

17%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

34% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? · Before Jan 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	437,710	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? · Before Jan 20, 2029	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	230,586	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? · Before Jan 1, 2028	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	1,037	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? · Before Dec 1, 2026	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	945	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.