Markets › Kalshi › Politics
President impeached on Kalshi
If the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill impeaching the President of the United States after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,502,395 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,463,254 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? · Before Jan 20, 2029 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 980,663 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 601,680 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 169,709 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 79,465 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 72,484 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 71,403 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 58,815 | May 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 55,092 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 43,911 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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