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Illinois nuclear electricity generation on Kalshi
If EIA reports that Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for calendar year 2026 is above 102.5 TWh, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 92¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $0.28 | 92.5% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 97.5 TWh? · Above 97.5 TWh | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 81,608 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 100.0 TWh? · Above 100.0 TWh | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 70,749 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 95.0 TWh? · Above 95.0 TWh | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 63,711 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh? · Above 92.5 TWh | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 38,496 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 102.5 TWh? · Above 102.5 TWh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 29,700 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 87.5 TWh? · Above 87.5 TWh | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,354 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 90.0 TWh? · Above 90.0 TWh | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,909 | Feb 28, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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