Markets › Kalshi › Crypto
Hype Directional on Kalshi
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 AM EST is above $99.9999 at 5 AM EST on Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CF Benchmarks.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 390 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 68¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.12 | 69.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $74.25 or above | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,037 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $73 or above | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 571 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $74 or above | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 260 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $73.75 or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 243 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $74.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 240 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 13, 2026? · $75 or above | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 223 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $73.5 or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 217 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $74.5 or above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 212 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 13, 2026? · $55 or above | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 61 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $75 or above | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 27 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $74 or above | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $76 or above | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $75.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $73.25 or above | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $75.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 13, 2026? · $79 or above | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 13, 2026? · $74 or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $100 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $99.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $99.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $99.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $99 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $98.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $98.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $98.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $98 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $97.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $97.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $97.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $97 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $96.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $96.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $96.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $96 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $95.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $95.5 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $95.25 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $95 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| HYPE price on Nov 10, 2026? · $94.75 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 390 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.