What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.29.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

How many people will be Speaker of the House? on Kalshi

If the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: body, agency, company, or entity at which role is employed, Fox News, White House, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, ABC, ABC News Australia, New York Times, NBC, The Associated Press, The Washington Post, Reuters, CNN, CBS, person announced to hold role, Politico, CNBC, Financial Times, Deutsche Welle, BBC News.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

12% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Exactly 1 people · Exactly 1	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	3,514	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Exactly 2 people · Exactly 2	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	3,022	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Exactly 3 people · Exactly 3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,859	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.