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How many seats will party win in state? on Kalshi
If Democrats win 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for <election>.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota? · 4 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15,847 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina? · 2 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,766 | May 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina? · 0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,222 | May 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota? · 5 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 12,827 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win more than 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina? · Above 2 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12,508 | May 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina? · 1 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,797 | May 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win more than 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota? · Above 5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,487 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Tennessee? · 0 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,396 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win more than 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Louisiana? · Above 2 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 6,401 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota? · 3 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,719 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · Below 4 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 4,577 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win fewer than 3 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Minnesota? · Below 3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,312 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 4 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,676 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,547 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win more than 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · Above 10 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,787 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Tennessee? · 1 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,764 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 6 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,432 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 9 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,102 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Louisiana? · 1 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,077 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 7 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 7 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 749 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 673 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win 8 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida? · 8 | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 646 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Louisiana? · 2 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 577 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Tennessee? · 2 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 467 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Louisiana? · 0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 322 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win more than 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Tennessee? · Above 2 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 214 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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