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Democratic House seat count on Kalshi
If the Democratic Party holds at least 265 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats hold at least 240 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 240 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 4,967 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 235 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 235 | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 4,257 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 250 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 250 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 3,624 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 245 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 245 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,218 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 255 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 255 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,028 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 260 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 260 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 720 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 230 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 230 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 521 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 225 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 225 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 161 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 218 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 218 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 124 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 220 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 220 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 101 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 265 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 265 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 52 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 215 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 215 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 25 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 210 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 210 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 205 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 205 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 200 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 200 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 195 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 195 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 190 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 190 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats hold at least 185 House seats after the 2028 election? · At least 185 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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