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2026 House popular vote Democratic minus Republican margin on Kalshi
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14.4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥8% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 35,035 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥2% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,722 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥10% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 26,406 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥6% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19,602 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥14% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 9,982 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥12% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,629 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥4% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,194 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 9 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥9% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,869 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 7 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥7% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,012 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14.5 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥14.5% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,000 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 5 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥5% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,256 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14.4 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥14.4% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,000 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 13.5 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥13.5% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,468 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 13 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥13% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,086 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 11 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥11% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,824 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 15.5 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥15.5% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,000 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥16% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 946 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14.2 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥14.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 15 percentage points? · Democrats, ≥15% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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