What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.36.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

How high will average weekly Hormuz transits get in 2026? on Kalshi

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

8% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 40	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	65,133	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 60	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	38,945	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 30	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	25,637	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 70	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	23,414	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 50	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	21,086	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 90	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	20,200	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 80	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	16,358	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 100	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	12,603	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 120 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 120	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,381	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 110	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	541	Jan 05, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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