What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 28¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 30% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 28%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Honey Deuce sales at the US Open on Kalshi

If Grey Goose sells above 950,000 units of Honey Deuce during the US Open 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Source Agencies are, quarterly or annual reports, in hierarchical order, press releases, and/or regulator filings; statements or disclosures by authorized executives of company (e, earnings calls, company’s official investor relations website.

Market says (typical open contract)

28%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

57% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
28¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.52	29.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 900,000 units	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	31,199	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 650,000 units	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	30,070	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 850,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 850,000 units	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	57%	22,932	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 950,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 950,000 units	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	19,016	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 750,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 750,000 units	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	16,088	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 700,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 700,000 units	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	7,073	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 800,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026? · Above 800,000 units	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	6,797	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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