Markets › Kalshi › Economics
US retail jobs added this holiday season on Kalshi
If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 600,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FRED.
Market says (typical open contract)
82%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 82¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.63 | 83.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 600,000? · Above 600,000 jobs | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 9,868 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000? · Above 500,000 jobs | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8,137 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 550,000? · Above 550,000 jobs | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 6,757 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000? · Above 300,000 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,291 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000? · Above 400,000 jobs | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,957 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000? · Above 350,000 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,270 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000? · Above 450,000 jobs | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,760 | Jan 08, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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