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Pete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada on Kalshi
If Pete Hoekstra leaves as US Ambassador to Canada before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Embassy in Canada, U.S. Department of State, Global Affairs Canada.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
31% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hoekstra be out as US Ambassador to Canada before Dec 12, 2026? · Before Dec 12, 2026 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,900 | Dec 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Hoekstra be out as US Ambassador to Canada before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 80 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Hoekstra be out as US Ambassador to Canada before Jan 26, 2027? · Before Jan 26, 2027 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4 | Jan 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Hoekstra be out as US Ambassador to Canada before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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