What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Hawaii visitor arrivals on Kalshi

If Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2027 are above 9.8 million, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
40¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.10	41.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million? · Above 9.6 million	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	23,044	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.2 million? · Above 10.2 million	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	15,389	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.8 million? · Above 9.8 million	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	8,069	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 9.4 million? · Above 9.4 million	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	1,705	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million? · Above 10.0 million	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,417	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.4 million? · Above 9.4 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	285	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 10.0 million? · Above 10.0 million	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	15	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 9.6 million? · Above 9.6 million	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	6	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 9.8 million? · Above 9.8 million	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	2	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 10.2 million? · Above 10.2 million	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Jan 31, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.