What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Atlanta Max Temperature on Kalshi

If the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta (CLIATL) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 76° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Weather Company.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

For the most traded contract (68° or below): market 0%, our simple model 8%. NWS forecast high 72°F for 2026-11-10 at Atlanta (ATL), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the maximum temperature be >74° on Nov 9, 2026? · 75° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,278	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Nov 9, 2026? · 71° to 72°	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,527	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Nov 9, 2026? · 73° to 74°	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,296	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Nov 9, 2026? · 69° to 70°	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	952	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Nov 9, 2026? · 67° to 68°	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	684	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be <69° on Nov 10, 2026? · 68° or below	0¢	0%	0.0¢	8%	1%	471	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Nov 10, 2026? · 73° to 74°	62¢	62%	1.6¢	26%	75%	462	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Nov 10, 2026? · 75° to 76°	22¢	22%	1.2¢	12%	44%	439	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Nov 10, 2026? · 71° to 72°	18¢	18%	1.0¢	31%	35%	413	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Nov 10, 2026? · 69° to 70°	2¢	2%	0.2¢	19%	5%	151	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be <67° on Nov 9, 2026? · 66° or below	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Nov 10, 06:00 UTC
Will the maximum temperature be >76° on Nov 10, 2026? · 77° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	4%	1%	40	Nov 11, 06:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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