Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Highest temperature in NYC on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 68° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
42%
For the most traded contract (60° or below): market 24%, our simple model 42%. NWS forecast high 61°F for 2026-11-10 at New York (Central Park), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <61° on Nov 10, 2026? · 60° or below | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | 42% | 47% | 6,579 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Nov 10, 2026? · 61° to 62° | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | 31% | 60% | 4,739 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Nov 10, 2026? · 63° to 64° | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | 19% | 10% | 2,871 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 65-66° on Nov 10, 2026? · 65° to 66° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 7% | 3% | 944 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >68° on Nov 10, 2026? · 69° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 0% | 1% | 494 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Nov 10, 2026? · 67° to 68° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 1% | 1% | 108 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.