Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Highest temperature in Austin on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
58%
For the most traded contract (69° or below): market 66%, our simple model 58%. NWS forecast high 69°F for 2026-11-10 at Austin (AUS), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <70° on Nov 10, 2026? · 69° or below | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | 58% | 69% | 4,583 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 74-75° on Nov 10, 2026? · 74° to 75° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | 3% | 5% | 1,719 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Nov 10, 2026? · 70° to 71° | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | 26% | 43% | 1,691 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 72-73° on Nov 10, 2026? · 72° to 73° | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | 12% | 9% | 1,631 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Nov 10, 2026? · 76° to 77° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 0% | 1% | 1,359 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >77° on Nov 10, 2026? · 78° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 0% | 1% | 156 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.